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#protectionism

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"China has performed this miracle many times over. The world’s largest and most innovative producers of EVs (BYD), EV batteries (CATL), drones (DJI) and solar wafers (LONGi) are all Chinese start-ups, none more than 30 years old. They attained commanding technological and price leadership not because President Xi Jinping decreed it, but because they emerged triumphant from the economic Darwinism that is Chinese industrial policy. The rest of the world is ill prepared to compete with these apex predators. When U.S. policymakers deride China’s industrial policy, they are imagining something akin to the lumbering takeoff of Airbus or the lights going out on Solyndra. They should instead be gazing up at the nimble swarms of DJI drones buzzing over Ukraine.

China Shock 1.0 was bound to ebb when China ran out of low-cost labor, as it now has. Its growth is already falling behind Vietnam’s in industries such as clothing and commodity furniture. But unlike the United States, China is not looking back and mourning its lost manufacturing prowess. It is focusing instead on the key technologies of the 21st century. Contrary to a strategy built on cheap labor, China Shock 2.0 will last for as long as China has the resources, patience and discipline to compete fiercely.

And if you doubt China’s capability or determination, the evidence is not on your side. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, an independent think tank funded by the Australian Department of Defense, the United States led China in 60 of 64 frontier technologies, such as A.I. and cryptography, between 2003 and 2007, while China led the United States in just three. In the most recent report, covering 2019 through 2023, the rankings were flipped on their head. China led in 57 of 64 key technologies, and the United States held the lead in only seven."

nytimes.com/2025/07/14/opinion

The New York Times · Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.By David Autor
#USA#Trump#TradeWar

"McGee argues that the technology transfer facilitated by Apple to China, via small decisions compounding over decades, ultimately made it the biggest corporate investor into Made in China 2025, President Xi Jinping’s bold plan to end reliance on Western technology. “Here was America’s most famous tech giant volunteering to play the role of Prometheus, handing the Chinese the gift of fire,” McGee writes.

Yet the overarching argument of the book — that the US company made China into the tech behemoth it is today — begs the question of why Apple didn’t make the same kind of investment in the US. And amid Trump’s second term, when he has repeatedly threatened tariffs on the company if it doesn’t onshore manufacturing, this query has new urgency.

But the reality is that Trump’s nagging will never be able to recreate the ecosystem that local governments in China, with the help of Taiwanese suppliers such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., created to lure Apple. A simplistic answer from a scholar early in the book is that China was a “low wages, low welfare and low human rights” nation. Suppliers could exploit a massive underclass of migrant workers, and local authorities could quickly suppress any labor unrest or media reports of it.

If there were any voices I wanted to hear more of in the book, it wasn’t the dozens of Cupertino, California, engineers but these Chinese workers who turned Apple into the $3-trillion-dollar company it is today. (Apple has publicly called claims in the book untrue and full of inaccuracies.)

But if there’s a lesson for Trump — or American consumers — here, it is that electronics manufacturing jobs can come at a high cost for workers. It’s hard to imagine that these are the kinds of positions Trump’s base is hoping for, in an area where automation would be welcome."

bloomberg.com/opinion/articles

#USA#Trump#Tariffs

"Several traditional and electric-vehicle makers—and their suppliers—are considering shifting some auto-parts manufacturing to China to avoid looming factory shutdowns, people familiar with the situation said.

Ideas under review include producing electric motors in Chinese factories or shipping made-in-America motors to China to have magnets installed. Moving production to China as a way to get around the export controls on rare-earth magnets could work because the restrictions only cover magnets, not finished parts, the people said.

If automakers end up shifting some production to China, it would amount to a remarkable outcome from a trade war initiated by President Trump with the intention of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.

“If you want to export a magnet [from China] they won’t let you do that. If you can demonstrate that the magnet is in a motor in China, you can do that,” said a supply-chain manager at one of the carmakers.

China in April began requiring companies to apply for permission to export magnets made with rare-earth metals, including dysprosium and terbium. The country controls roughly 90% of the world’s supply of these elements, which help magnets to operate at high temperatures. Much of the world’s modern technology, from smartphones to F-35 jet fighters, rely on these magnets."

wsj.com/business/autos/car-com

#USA#Trump#Tariffs

"China’s advances in manufacturing have caused a series of problems, however — both for its economy and for the rest of the world. Critics say one of the main weaknesses is the propensity to produce market distortions — sometimes on a monumental scale.

Local governments, whose leaders are measured by their ability to deliver economic growth, latch on to new central government policies to attract subsidised industries to their areas.
The result is duplication and state-backed overcapacity supercharged by competition that drives prices down — good for consumers but not for corporate profitability or local government finances.

“We have seen these boom-and-bust cycles,” says the EU Chamber in China’s Eskelund, pointing to the solar and battery industries. “The government actually gives policy guidance and . . . everyone seems to be rushing in the same direction.”
The EV sector was a case in point, he says, where only about three out of 112 manufacturers are making a profit. “We see waste at an absolutely colossal scale,” Eskelund says."

ft.com/content/724431ad-26db-4

Financial Times · The lessons from China’s dominance in manufacturingBy Ryan McMorrow

"President Xi Jinping’s government is considering a new version of its master plan to boost production of high-end technological goods, according to people familiar with the matter, signaling its intention to keep a firm grip on manufacturing as President Donald Trump looks to bring more factories back to the US.

Officials are drawing up plans for a future iteration of Xi’s flagship “Made in China 2025” campaign, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing deliberations that aren’t public. The plan over the next decade would prioritize technology including chip-making equipment, one of the people said, adding that it may not carry a similar name to avoid drawing criticism from Western countries.

Policymakers who are separately preparing Beijing’s next Five-Year Plan starting in 2026 are looking to maintain the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product at a stable level over the medium to long-term, one of the people said, underlining how the rebalancing of China’s economy sought by the US may prove elusive.

As part of deliberations, officials have discussed whether the next Five-Year Plan should include a numerical target for consumption in terms of its share in China’s GDP, according to the person. They are currently leaning against that, as authorities are concerned they lack effective tools to spur spending by households and are reluctant to commit to a specific number, the person said."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/20