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#overshoot
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3rd May 2025 is #overshoot day, https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/about-earth-overshoot-day/
Earth Overshoot DayAbout Earth Overshoot Day - #MoveTheDate of Earth Overshoot DayEarth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services exceeds what Earth can regenerate.
Aus einer ökonomischen Perspektive betrachtet, befindet sich die Menschheit ab dem #Erdüberlastungstag in einem #Ressourcendefizit, weil sie ihr ganzes jährliches Ressourceneinkommen bereits aufgebraucht hat und sich deshalb „Geld von der Bank“ – das heißt der Erde – leihen muss. Dieser Zustand wird mit #overshoot (dt. Überschreitung) bezeichnet.
Vor nicht sehr langer Zeit war der Tag im Dezember erst erreicht (1970).
2025 schon im August!
Techno-solutionnisme et « overshoot » : l’illusion mortifère de la mégamachine climatique
Homo Hortus · Techno-solutionnisme et « overshoot » : l’illusion mortifère de la mégamachine climatique🌍🚨 Le « dépassement climatique » : un pari techno-solutionniste suicidaire ? Face à l’inaction politique, l’idée d’un « overshoot » (dépassement temporaire des 1,5°C) gagne du terrain. Mais compter…
https://www.europesays.com/1980599/ Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C #1.5Degrees #1.5C #CarbonDioxideEmissions #Climate #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #GuestPost #NetZero #overshoot #ParisAgreement
While it may sound repulsive to modern humans this was one of the ways old societies remained in balance with nature, i.e. sustainable.
![Marvin Harris estimated that among Paleolithic hunters 23–50% of newborn children were killed. He argued that the goal was to preserve the 0.001% population growth of that time.[168]: 15 He also wrote that female infanticide may be a form of population control.[168]: 5 Population control is achieved not only by limiting the number of potential mothers; increased fighting among men for access to relatively scarce wives would also lead to a decline in population. For example, on the Melanesian island of Tikopia infanticide was used to keep a stable population in line with its resource base.[6] Research by Marvin Harris and William Divale supports this argument, it has been cited as an example of environmental determinism.[169]](https://media.mas.to/media_attachments/files/114/252/804/593/953/434/original/64029416f8f19e29.jpg "Marvin Harris estimated that among Paleolithic hunters 23–50% of newborn children were killed. He argued that the goal was to preserve the 0.001% population growth of that time.[168]: 15 He also wrote that female infanticide may be a form of population control.[168]: 5 Population control is achieved not only by limiting the number of potential mothers; increased fighting among men for access to relatively scarce wives would also lead to a decline in population. For example, on the Melanesian island of Tikopia infanticide was used to keep a stable population in line with its resource base.[6] Research by Marvin Harris and William Divale supports this argument, it has been cited as an example of environmental determinism.[169]")
![Anthropologists have argued that those with disabilities are often viewed as bad omens as raising a child with a disability in such communities are an insurmountable hurdle.[172] For example, in southern Ethiopia, children with physical abnormalities are considered to be ritually impure or mingi, with the ability to exert an evil influence upon others, so disabled infants have traditionally been disposed of.[173]](https://media.mas.to/media_attachments/files/114/252/807/859/401/634/original/f50ebecad0e9e102.jpg "Anthropologists have argued that those with disabilities are often viewed as bad omens as raising a child with a disability in such communities are an insurmountable hurdle.[172] For example, in southern Ethiopia, children with physical abnormalities are considered to be ritually impure or mingi, with the ability to exert an evil influence upon others, so disabled infants have traditionally been disposed of.[173]")
#ClimateCrisis #earth #humanity #societalcollapse #article
"#Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save #Civilization"
I also quote a paragraph that brings some hope (from another article of the same author).
"That’s why I always emphasize that even though it’s too late to save civilization, it’s not too late to save as much of the natural world as possible. Every 1/10th of a degree of warming that we prevent will save millions of lives and countless species."
Medium · Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization
Continued thread
Hm. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23010-5
"Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios" by deVrese and Brovkin 2021
They took one of the plant-soil models and looked in an overshoot scenario what the temperature rise and artificial sudden removal of atmospheric CO2 does to the soil and carbon store in the #Arctic.
The end result after adaption to new stabilisation level is: carbon store is only 40GtC lower than before the overshoot, ie a mere 4 years worth of current global fossil CO2 emissions.
This surprisingly (to me) low end result of -40GtC is due to increased plant growth from the temperature increase over pre-industrial, from the prolonged growth seasons, and a special Arctic circumstance of high Nitrogen availability that ensures nutrients for excessive plant growth.
But the "end result" comprises the whole adjustment period to a stabilised °C after the overshoot. Adjustment takes 1000 yrs in the model.
And in the interim periods, emissions from thawing permafrost do reach 1 to 1.5GtC each year, and for decades! The duration for this soil-atmosphere carbon flux depends on the level and duration of the temperature overshoot.
Of course, it also increases the #CO2 amount to be artificially removed to undo an #overshoot.
In the context of #RCPcollapse :
the toot above showed how natural CO2 removal after civilisation collapse leads to temperature reduction of more than 0.5°C within 30 years .
Now, while permafrost thaw is irreversible on human time scales, it won't continue in RCPcollapse. (Because Arctic permafrost has no general technical tipping point after which self-perpetuating or self-reinforcing processes would kick in. Such processes only exist in small areas, locally, with local-only tipping behaviour. See "Global Tipping Points Report" 2023, chapter on #cryosphere https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536521/)
In RCPcollapse, the adjustment to the new equilibrium will take 1000 years – but there won't be a palpable increase in °C from the thaw.
NatureTimescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios - Nature CommunicationsIn this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.
Das Ende des Wirtschaftswachstums - Ulrike Herrmann und das Ende unserer ökonomischen Illusionen
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@breadandcircuses Absolutely spot-on here. My own family is an endorsement of your statement: I have three children, two of them married. Both have chosen not to have children so as not to bring any innocents into the nightmare that's coming.
I'm sad that I will never have grandchildren, but I fully endorse my childrens' decisions. In fact, I'm so proud of them!
found this graph on my hard drive. shows how the great recession delayed the #overshoot day.
Why Cheap Renewables Won't Save Us?
An interesting look at the reasons. Here it is shown, once again I should say, that capitalism doesn't work when it comes to long-term thinking. Capitalism is about short term profit above all.
So, would the world be saved when be could kill the capitalist system?
Well, we would be much better off I'm sure, but unfortunately when it comes to saving the planet, or our civilisation for that matter, I don't think so.
When it comes to the energy transition, there are two main factors that are not mentioned in this explanatory video.
1. Renewables produce electricity. Wind, solar and hydro power all result in electricity production. Unfortunately electricity only accounts for some 20% of our energy usage. The rest is supplied mostly by fossil fuels.
2. More importantly, we are in a severe state of overshoot. We have been using more than our share of minerals, oil and whatever. There are just not enough critical minerals available for the type of energy transition that would be necessary for 8 billion people on the planet.
- And besides energy we also need food and wild nature -
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a word about delays
this is not an actual archetype, but it can be said that a delay in a balancing loop almost always causes some problems, especially in a #limitstogrowth situation. #overshoot is the best example for that. and everything can be a delay. a stock is a delay in itself. a flow can and often has delays. delays are probably the thing i have the most respect of in a system.
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3. situation, and this is the one we are actually living in:
what happens when the fishery still stays profitable, even at very low fish densities?
well, these oscillation get out of hand. the fish will at some point, no longer replenish. just for the simple fact they are too few and far between. the delicate balance of reinforcing & balancing feedbacks is disrupted and tips the system into a new state: the fish have now become a non-renewable resource. that is what we mean by "#overshoot".
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@gerrymcgovern I think you might find it interesting to check out the first video (or however many catch your interest) of this playlist on "Metastatic Modernity" by Dr Tom Murphy of UCSD.
Murphy has been writing on energy, economy, modernity, and their intersection with planetary limits for quite a while at his Do The Math blog, and although that started in a pretty standard "green tech" position, as he started to look at things from a deeper, and rather darker, perspective which in 2021 he turned into an e-textbook _Energy and Human Ambition on a Finite Planet_.
Anyway, sorry for dropping in from nowhere.
#climate #modernity #DoTheMath #overshoot #LimitsToGrowth #sustainability
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvUde-N4t8XncjoHqK0GsE7a6EXMRiyjH&si=10IAmdlEF16Q2BnS
youtube.comBefore you continue to YouTube
“The modernity project does not define humanity. Humanity is much older. It’s too late for modernity to succeed but it’s not too late for humanity to succeed.”
“Most people are extremely depressed by what I say. I’m not. Not at all. I think it’s exciting to imagine what the future can be. You’re only depressed if you’re in love with modernity. If you’re not, it’s not devastating to imagine it disappearing.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/12/renewables-wont-save-us-from-climate-catastrophe-experts-warn-what-will/
#Overshoot #SystemChange
Mongabay Environmental News · Renewables won’t save us from climate catastrophe, experts warn; what will?In 2022, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres declared that the “lifeline of renewable energy can steer [the] world out of climate crisis.” In saying so, he echoed a popular and tantalizing idea: that, if we hurry, we can erase the climate emergency with widespread adoption of renewables in the form of solar panels, wind farms, electric […]
Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
by William E. Rees, human ecologist
Eric Lee
Jul 24, 2024
Abstract
The human enterprise is in overshoot; we exceed the long-term carrying capacity of Earth and are degrading the biophysical basis of our own existence. Despite decades of cumulative evidence, the world community has failed dismally in efforts to address this problem. I argue that cultural evolution and global change have outpaced bio-evolution; despite millennia of evolutionary history, the human brain and associated cognitive processes are functionally obsolete to deal with the human eco-crisis. H. sapiens tends to respond to problems in simplistic, reductionist, mechanical ways. Simplistic diagnoses lead to simplistic remedies. Politically acceptable technical ‘solutions’ to global warming assume fossil fuels are the problem, require major capital investment and are promoted on the basis of profit potential, thousands of well-paying jobs and bland assurances that climate change can readily be rectified. If successful, this would merely extend overshoot. Complexity demands a systemic approach; to address overshoot requires unprecedented international cooperation in the design of coordinated policies to ensure a socially-just economic contraction, mostly in high-income countries, and significant population reductions everywhere. The ultimate goal should be a human population in the vicinity of two billion thriving more equitably in ‘steady-state’ within the biophysical means of nature.
Keywords: carrying capacity; cognitive obsolescence; systems complexity; economic contraction; population planning.
Introduction: Evolution and humanity’s eco-predicament
This article attempts a more-than-usually systemic assessment of the human eco-predicament. It is inspired by two related facts: First, the human population substantially exceeds the long-term carrying capacity of Earth even at current average material standards. We are in overshoot, a state in which excess consumption and pollution are eroding the biophysical basis of our own existence (GFN, 2022a; Rees, 2020a). Second, national government and international community responses to even the most publicised symptom of overshoot, climate change, have been dismally limited and wholly ineffective (Figure 1).
. . .
Medium · Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
The best & most comprehensive article I have read yet about the impending #collapse due to #overshoot, and what we can, but why we won't, do anything about it.
Thank you Jack of all trades @jackofalltrades
Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
Medium · Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
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K-selected species have slower reproduction & longer generation times, their responses to changes in population size are delayed, which creates lower-amplitude, slower oscillations in their populations.
they are selected for by evolution regarding resource use, hence K-selected.
humans like other big mammals once were a K-selected species, even when elon musk is flying around with his jet having 3 million kids - we still are.
#overshoot
#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking
